- Counties: Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha
- 2019 Population: 629,453 (10.81%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentages: 12.61%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 419,805 (12.27% of state totals)
- Race and Ethnicity: 89.40% White, 4.31% Hispanic, 3.12% Asian, 1.56% Black, 1.32% 2+
- Ancestry: 48.08% German, 12.45% Irish, 11.93% Polish, 6.01% English, 5.24% Italian
- Median Income: $76,572
- Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 49.6%
These are the world famous ‘WOW’ counties. These three counties plus Milwaukee County make up the Milwaukee Metropolitan Area. This was a pretty obvious grouping given the notoriety this region has developed recently and the amount of study that has done looking into the divide between Milwaukee County and these three counties. Racine County was the only other county that could logically be included here as the Village of Caledonia could be considered a Milwaukee suburb rather than a Racine suburb, however it really makes sense to keep it connected to Kenosha County.
This is the largest region in the state by population, a little over 39,000 more people than the second largest region, Dane County. In recent history this is the most Republican region in the state. However, In the 19th Century this region was actually one of the most Democratic regions in the state. It was a heavily German area, especially Ozaukee and Washington counties, and at that time Germans were the core of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin. This began to reverse after America’s entry into World War One and anti-German discrimination the war caused. This reversal continued with the conservative backlash over the New Deal. Suburbanization and white flight in 1960’s and 1970’s were the last step and it cemented the Republican power here since. The lack of diversification compared to other metropolitan area suburbs, plus the relative lateness in suburbanization/white flight and a higher percentage of evangelical adherents make this area a tougher nut to crack for the Democrats than other suburban areas.
Today this region has the highest median income in the state. Over $21,000 more that the state medium. The Milwaukee Suburbs also have the second highest percentage of people who have attained a college degree at almost 50%.. It is about eight and half more points whiter than the rest of the state and is the second most German region in the state. Also, please note how this region outvotes its population percentage by about two percentage points. Compare that to the City of Milwaukee which undervotes it’s population percentage by over two points. Finally, it is important to remember that typically this region counts and reports its votes fast.
- PVI: R+18
- Presidential Margin: McCain +26% -> Romney +35% -> Trump +30%
- 2018 Margin: Vukmir +25% | Walker +36%
One thing I’ve noticed while doing my review of this region is how even though everyone always lumps these three counties together and many just see it as one giant conservative blob, there are fundamental differences once you look under the hood. Waukesha has also been the most stable county in this region with Trump doing only about three points better than McCain did against Obama in 2008. On the other hand, Washington County surged over twelve to the right since 2008, while Clinton actually improved on Obama’s 2008 margin by a point in Ozaukee County and she did fourteen points better than his 2012 margin!
The map above from J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball does a really does a good job of illustration this divergence. Typically, I don’t like comparing partisan fall elections with non-partisan spring elections, but this map does a really good job at showing us the changes in this region. The margin between Obama and McCain in 2008 and Daniel Kelly and Jill Karofsky in this year’s Supreme Court race in the WOW counties were almost identical, however you can see that there has been some major movement going in both directions at the municipal level. In particular with Waukesha County you can see that most of the municipalities that border Milwaukee County are moving to the left plus the areas that border I-94 going to Dane County, while the more rural and exurban areas are moving towards the right.
- 2019 Population: 89,221 (1.53%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.86%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 61,837 (1.81% of state totals)
- PVI: R+14
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +20%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +27%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +16%
- Municipalities: City of Mequon (24,382) Trump +12%, City of Port Washington (11,911) Trump +11%, Village of Grafton (11,715) Trump +21%, Village of Cedarburg (10,603) Trump +9%
In many ways one can view Ozaukee County as an extension of the Northeastern Suburbs in Milwaukee County. It is the more white-collar and cosmopolitan county of the three. If any of the three WOW counties are going to vote Democratic in the next 10-20 years, it will be Ozaukee County. The places to look at here is the City of Port Washington and the Villages of Cedarburg and Thiensville. Biden is probably getting what he needs here if these places if the margin is in the single digits. If he’s winning any of municipalities, he’s probably getting close to a fifteen-point win statewide. Trump would be feeling good if he’s winning those same municipalities in the high teens.
- 2019 Population: 136,034 (2.34%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentages: 2.61%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 87,312 (2.55% of state totals)
- PVI: R+22
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +43%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +46%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +34%
- Municipalities: City of West Bend (31,563) Trump +31%, Village of Germantown (20,116) Trump +32%, City of Hartford (15,445) Trump +35%, Village of Richfield (11,854) Trump +50%
Washington County is the most Republican County in Wisconsin. It is the most rural and exurban of the three WOW counties. The villages of Germantown and Richfield are really the only traditional suburbs, with the other municipalities in the counties acting almost more like a combination of an exurban satellite city and a traditional suburb. A place to look here is probably the Village of Germantown. As being the most traditional suburb in this county, this is the place where we might see some further movement towards the center. If Biden can get the margin down here to under thirty points he would have to be thrilled, closer to twenty-five points and he’s probably getting close to Baldwin’s margin in the state. Trump will want to get Walker’s 2018 margin of almost forty points here.
- 2019 Population: 404,198 (6.94%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentages: 8.13%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 270,656 (7.91% of state totals)
- PVI: R+17
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +29%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +34
- 2018 Senate Margin: Trump +24
- Municipalities: City of Waukesha (72,299) Trump +11%, City of New Berlin (39,691) Trump +24%, City of Brookfield (39,115) Trump +21%, Village of Menomonee Falls (38,014) Trump +21%, City of Muskego (25,127) Trump +39%, City of Oconomowoc (16,981) Trump +29%, City of Pewaukee (14,631) Trump +35%, Village of Sussex (10,981) Trump +32%, Village of Hartland (9,320) Trump +32%
First thing to note is that almost 2/3rds of this region’s population is solely in “Crucial” Waukesha County and it is the third most populated county in the state behind Milwaukee and Dane. The main place to do a deeper dive here is the City of Waukesha. This is one of the few places in this region that actually has typically reliable Democratic voting wards. Biden will want to keep the margin here below ten points, while Trump would obviously want it higher. If Biden is cutting that margin closer to five points like Baldwin did, he’s winning statewide by a lot. Trump again will want to get closer to that Walker margin of fifteen points. The City of Brookfield and Village of Menomonee Falls are other places too look at on election day with Biden wanting to keep the margin below twenty-five points and Trump wanting it to be higher.
Badger State Elections 