- Counties: Dodge, Fond du Lac, Jefferson and Sheboygan
- 2019 Population: 391,351 (6.72%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentages: 6.58%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 185,707 (6.58% of state totals)
- Race and Ethnicity: 88.87% White, 5.50% Hispanic, 1.89% Black, 1.38% American Indian, 1.25% 2+, 1.07% Asian
- Ancestry: 50.79% German, 10.26% Irish, 6.25% Polish, 4.97% English, 4.87% Dutch
- Median Income: $55,481
- Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 32.0%
The counties that make up this region are in the outer ring of the Milwaukee Combined Statistical Area (Dodge and Jefferson) and the Milwaukee Media Market (Sheboygan). Fond du Lac County was included in this region due to their ancestral, municipal, and political ties to both Dodge and Sheboygan counties. For instance, the City of Waupun, the 82nd largest municipality in the state, straddles the Dodge and Fond du Lac County border. Also, this region is historically and today the most German (both historically Catholic and Protestant) region in the state. At 50.79% German, it is the only region in the state where the majority of the population claim an ancestry. It also has a heavy Dutch influence, especially in southern Sheboygan County, which bleeds over into Fond du Lac County. This German and Dutch combination is one reason why this region is so Republican. Historically, like Ozaukee and Washington counties, the Dodge and Jefferson County combo was once one of the most Democratic areas of the state because of how German it was. It also shifted to the Republicans because of the anti-German hysteria brought about by World War One and the backlash to FDR’s New Deal.
The Milwaukee Exurbs are also whiter than the state as a whole, but interestingly not as white as the Milwaukee Suburbs region. It is also the first region with an American Indian population over one percent. The median income slightly higher than the state median, but by less than $1,000. Plus, the post-secondary degree attainment is almost seven points lower than the state percentage.
There are arguments that could be made that every county in this region could be with a different region and most are legit. Sheboygan County has a strong connection with Manitowoc and Green Bay. They could easily be in the Fox Valley & Thumb region. The City of Sheboygan high school teams compete against primarily schools to its north. I decided against this due to the strong Dutch present in the southern part of the county and how it bleeds into Fond du Lac County, plus its inclusion in the Milwaukee Media Market. Fond du Lac County could probably be included with the Fox Cities Region to complete the entire loop around Lake Winnebago. Similar to Sheboygan, Fond du Lac High School plays against schools to its north. However, the previously explained ties to Dodge and Sheboygan counties overrode that idea. Finally, both western Dodge and Jefferson counties are definitely more orientated towards the City of Madison and Dane County. Beaver Dam, Fort Atkinson, Lake Mills, and Waterloo are all satellite municipalities that primarily orbit Madison rather than Milwaukee. The stronger than average German ancestry in the eastern parts of these counties, the strong tie of the City of Watertown to Milwaukee, and being in the Milwaukee Combined Statistical Area/Media Market won out in the end. Lastly, an argument could be made that Walworth County should be included here as it is included in both the Milwaukee Combined Statistical Area and the Milwaukee Media Market. However, the strong cultural ties to both the Chicagoland area, plus Kenosha and Racine counties make its inclusion in the Southeast region the clear choice.
- PVI: R+10
- Presidential Margin: McCain +4% -> Romney +12% -> Trump +23%
- 2018 Margin: Vukmir +11% | Walker +22%
This is a region that has been pretty Republican in recent history and is only getting more Republican. I should note that Obama’s 2008 margin of only losing by four points is incredible for a Democrat and something we haven’t seen here at the Presidential level since 1964. Even still, comparing the more normal Democratic number here in 2012 and 2016 you can see that Republicans are making gains. However, its sort of a difficult region for Republicans break out of a certain range as there actually are some Democratic areas (Beaver Dam, Sheboygan, Western Jefferson County, etc.) that unlike the WOW counties that help balance out the extremely Republican areas, at least a little bit. That’s part of why I don’t really see this as a very pivotal region in 2020 as long as nothing out of the ordinary happens like Biden cutting the margin into the high single digits or Trump getting close to a thirty-point win.
- 2019 Population: 87,839 (1.51%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.43%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 48,646 (1.42% of state totals)
- PVI: R+13
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +30%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +27%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Trump +15%
- Municipalities: City of Beaver Dam (16,403) Clinton +1%, City of Waupun (11,199 – Partially in Fond du Lac County) Trump +32
Dodge County is home to the Fitzgerald family that has been essentially running the state, along with Scott Walker before 2019, for the last 10 years. It is a very Republican County. One place to look here when results come in on election day is the City of Beaver Dam. Hillary Clinton barely won in what is typically pretty reliable Democratic municipality. If this margin is similar this year, Trump will be happy. Biden would love to match the 9-point win Evers got here. If Biden is winning any other municipality or town in this county, he’s in for a big win in Wisconsin. Same for Trump is he’s sweeping the county.
- 2019 Population: 103,403 (1.78%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.71%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 56,799 (1.66% of state totals)
- PVI: R+12
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +28%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +26%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Trump +14%
- Municipalities: City of Fond du Lac (43,263) Trump +12%
Fond du Lac county is an interesting mixture of different political cultures that are prevalent in the state. Each area of the county is similar to the bordering counties and regions. They all are a little different, but the one similarity is they are all very Republican. In some cases, like 70-80% Republican. The municipality to look at here is the City of Ripon. The birthplace of the Republican Party, Ripon is ironically the municipality most likely to go Democratic in the county. Yes, Hillary Clinton lost it by seven points and Evers by close to five, but Obama won this in 2012 and Baldwin won this by eleven points in 2018! Biden would like to get this margin down to less than three points and winning it would not be out of the question. Trump would like to keep that margin higher. Biden is winning the state by a big margin if he’s winning anywhere else in the county like Baldwin did in the City of Fond du Lac and the Village of North Fond du Lac in 2016. Trump would love to sweep this county again and win everything by at least a double-digit margin.
- 2019 Population: 84,769 (1.46%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.44%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 48,764 (1.43% of state totals)
- PVI: R+8
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +17%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +15%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Trump +5%
- Municipalities: City of Watertown (23,479 – Partially in Dodge County) Trump +29%, City of Fort Atkinson (12,422) Clinton +7%
Jefferson County is many ways is a county divided. In the eastern part of the county you have very German rural towns and the largest municipality in the county with the City of Watertown. Both of these items have much more common with the Milwaukee suburbs and are very Republican. On the western side you have towns with much closer margins and municipalities like Fort Atkinson and Lake Mills that produce margins which are definitely more in common with what you’d see in Dane County. The difference being the eastern half consistently outweighs the western half, both in population and margin. The place to look here when election results come in is the City of Jefferson. Biden would like to do a little bit better here than Evers and win this city. Trump would obviously like to prevent this. If Biden is winning the City of Jefferson plus the Town of Lake Mills, he would be thrilled. Trump would love to make further gains in the western rural areas and limit Biden to just Fort Atkinson and Lake Mills.
- 2019 Population: 115,340 (1.98%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentages: 2.00%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 66,634 (1.95% of state totals)
- PVI: R+8
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +17%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +20%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Trump +9%
- Municipalities: City of Sheboygan (47,965) Clinton +9%
Sheboygan County is pretty easy to understand. Democrats win the City of Sheboygan; Republicans win everywhere else and that everywhere else greatly overpowers the city. The southern part of the county is arguably the most Republican area of the state. However, like other extremely Dutch areas in the country (Western Michigan for example), this area has swung away from the Republicans a little bit in the era of Trump. Republicans are now only in the 70 percent range here rather than the 80 percent they previously got. The place to look at here would actually be the City of Sheboygan. This was a place where Hillary Clinton did better than Evers, but Baldwin doubled Hillary’s margin. Biden would love to push that margin into the low to mid-double digits. Trump would love to get Walker’s margin here of only losing by around five points and if he does any better, he’d be really pleased. If Biden is winning any other municipality or town in this county, he’s winning by double digits statewide.
Badger State Elections 