- Counties: Clark, Marathon, Portage, and Wood
- 2019 Population: 314,237 (5.40%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentage: 5.33%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 179,417 (5.25%)
- Race and Ethnicity: 90.18% White, 3.79% Asian, 3.36% Hispanic, 1.31% 2+
- Ancestry: 46.84% German, 17.82% Polish, 8.23% Irish, 6.25% Norwegian, 5.03% English
- Median Income: $51,995
- Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 34.4%
This region is based around the Wausau-Stevens Point-Wisconsin Rapids Combined Statistical Area (CSA), incorporating its core counties of Marathon, Portage, and Wood. This area is colloquially referred to as the Wisconsin Valley as the majority of the major settlements are located on the Wisconsin River. Clark County was added to this region as four municipalities (City of Abbotsford, City of Colby, Village of Dorchester, and Village of Unity) straddle the county line between Clark County and Marathon County. There was no other factor present that could have overridden Clark County’s inclusion here in favor of another region.
There are a few other counties that probably could have been included in this region. The one that probably was the closest to being included was Lincoln County. Located just north of Marathon County, Lincoln County is included in the Wausau-Stevens Point-Wisconsin Rapids CSA and is the only county in the CSA not included in this region. Also, its only municipalities are located on the Wisconsin River, like the major cities in this region. It was a really close call, however I deiced to go with the Eastern Northwoods region for Lincoln County. If you look at a satellite view of the State of Wisconsin, you can see the dark and dense wooded area in the northern part of the state. The vast majority of Lincoln County is in this forested area. Taylor County, north of Clark County, was another potential addition here, but here too dense woodlands make up a large part of the county. The other surrounding counties were either too different from the other counties in this region or had a stronger tie to other regions.
A couple things pop out when looking at the demographics of the region. First, the largest minority group here in Central Wisconsin are Asian Americans. This is due in large part to the work of Catholic and Lutheran ministries to bring Hmong refugees to the City of Wausau during the mid-1970s. The Hmong were allies of the United States in Southeast Asian during the Vietnam War and the later stages of the Laotian Civil War. At the conclusion of both conflicts, Hmong were subjected to targeted attacks and tens of thousands were killed, imprisoned or forced to flee. The City of Wausau was the first place in Wisconsin to receive Hmong refugees and today Hmong Americans make up 11% of the city’s population. The second thing that jumps out in this region is it has the highest percentage of people claiming Polish ancestry. Northeastern Portage County into southeastern Marathon County is in fact one of the most concentrated Polish American areas in the country. In fact, the Town of Sharon in Portage County was the most Polish place in the United States in 2000 at over 60%. Finally, one should note that this region is over nine points whiter than the rest of the state, has a Black population so small it’s under one percent, is below the state medium income by $2,615, and its college degree attainment is four points less than state percentage.
- PVI: R+6
- Presidential Margins: Obama (08) +15% -> Romney +1% -> Trump +15%
- 2018 Margins: Walker +14% | Vukmir +0%
Historically this was one of the stronger regions in the state for Democrats. Polish Americans were once one of the core constituencies of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin. This former strength among Polish Americans allowed Democrats to offset some of the Republican strength, built around German American voters, in Marathon and Wood counties. For example, Portage County has voted for Democrats in every Presidential race going back to 1956 and if you exclude Eisenhower, you have to go back to 1924. Even as recent as 2008, Obama was getting over 60% of the Polish vote. This started to fade in 2012 when Obama won Polish Americans by around five points and then dramatically plummeted in 2016 as Trump won the Polish vote by almost nineteen points. Evers only did about a point better than Clinton in 2018 and even Baldwin lost them by three points. This was after Baldwin won the group by eight in 2012 against Tommy Thompson. A lot of this is the breakdown of old political ties that were based on ancestral/religious identity and the increasing importance of urban vs. rural as the new identifier that binds people to certain political parties.
While other regions like the Madison Exurbs, Southwest Wisconsin, Lake Superior Shoreline, etc. bounced back strongly to the statewide Democratic candidates in 2018, this region really did not. Evers only did 1.33% better than Clinton and as one can see in the map above, Walker did better than Trump in a shocking number of localities. Plus, Baldwin lost here after winning the region in 2012. That all being said, this is a region I could see Trump improving on his 2016 margin, even if Biden has a healthy lead statewide. Trump would love to push the margin here even farther into the low twenties, while Biden would be content somewhere in-between Evers and Baldwin in the high single digits.
In many ways this region has become one of the core areas in the state for Trumpism. One only needs to look at the 2018 Republican Senate Primary where this was one of the stronger areas in the state for Kevin Nicholson, the preferred candidate for many in the Trump sphere. This was in comparison to the more establishment friendly Milwaukee Suburbs where both Nicholson and Trump in 2016 did not perform that well in their respective primaries.
- 2019 Population: 34,774
- Average Vote from Region Percentage: 0.45%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 15,365 (0.45% of state totals)
- PVI: R+12
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +34%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +30%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir 13%
- Municipalities: City of Neillsville (2,409) Trump +19%
Clark County is a very rural and Republican county. It’s amazing to think that Obama won here in 2008 by eight-points. Biden has no chance to win here, but like the other super Republican counties he would like to improve on Clinton’s margin here and only lose by around twenty-five points. The place to look here on Election Day is the Town of Sherwood in the southeast corner of the county. Clinton only lost here by three and Evers only won here by a little less than a point. A healthy lead here for Biden would probably mean he’s getting the margin he’d want in this county. Trump would obviously like to repeat the countywide sweep and expand his lead into the high thirties. If Biden is winning any other town or municipalities like the Town of Reseburg or the City of Greenwood, he’s cruising to a big statewide win.
- 2019 Population: 135,692
- Average Vote from Region Percentage: 2.33%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 78,832 (2.30% of state totals)
- PVI: R+8
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +19%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +21%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +6%
- Municipalities: City of Wausau (38,561) Clinton +4%, Village of Weston (15,167) Trump +16%
Marathon County at one point was a swing county that typically only leaned about three to four points more Republican than the rest of the state. That has changed in recent years as it has zoomed to the right. This is one of the few counties not in the Milwaukee area where Evers did worse than Clinton. Not even Baldwin could win here while winning statewide by eleven points. Biden’s goal here should be to get Trump’s lead down to the low double digits. The place to look with the returns start to come in is the largest city in the county, Wausau. Clinton only won here by four points in 2016 and Evers only won it by two points in 2018. Biden would be getting the percentage he wants in this county if he can push that lead up to the high single digits. Trump’s goal here would be to improve on Walker and win Wausau to sweep the county. Biden would be on pace for large statewide win if he could show some resurgence in the old Democratic strongholds in the Polish American areas like the Town of Bevent or win some of the Wausau suburbs like Rothschild or Schofield.
- 2019 Population: 70,772
- Average Vote from Region Percentage: 1.30%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 42,766 (1.25% of state totals)
- PVI: D+3
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Clinton +3%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +6%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +16%
- Municipalities: City of Stevens Point (25,880) Clinton +26%, Village of Plover (13,099) Clinton +2%
As previously mentioned, this has traditionally been one of the strongest counties in the state for Democrats. Not only were there rural Polish voters in the northeast corner of the county, but also the presence of the University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point. Now that the rural Polish vote has abandoned Democrats for the most part, Stevens Point is all that’s left. This is why Democrats still win here in almost every election, but no longer get the massive margins that they got in the past. This is the main county in the region where Biden will need to improve if he wants to cut down on Trump’s margin in Central Wisconsin. The key place I would look at in November is the Town of Hull just north of Stevens Point. Both Clinton and Evers lost here in the low single digits, while Baldwin won here by nine. A win here by Biden means he’s probably getting the improvements over Clinton and Evers that he would like to get in Portage County. Trump would love to grab some of the low hanging fruit by taking the villages of Amherst and Plover. Doing so would maybe flip the county to him, which again would be a first for a Republican since 1956. Like in Marathon County, Biden would be ecstatic if he’s winning back some of the traditional Polish American Democrats by winning the village of Rosholt or even the Town of Alban, where Baldwin actually tied Vukmir.
- 2019 Population: 72,999
- Average Vote from Region Percentage: 1.25%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 42,454 (1.24% of state totals)
- PVI: R+7
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +20%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +16%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +3%
- Municipalities: City of Marshfield (18,471 – Partially in Marathon County) Trump + 10%, City of Wisconsin Rapids (17,610) – Trump +12%
This county in the past was similar to Marathon in that it typically was close to the state margin, plus about three to four points to the Republicans. This changed greatly in recent years as both Trump and Walker swept every town and municipality in this county. Biden’s goal here in the election should be to try to prevent the sweep again by winning either Marshfield or Wisconsin Rapids. Baldwin won both cities in 2018, so while difficult, would not be impossible. Doing so would probably result in Biden only losing here in the low teens, which is what he’d want to get here in order to win statewide. Trump would love to push his margin here into the mid to high twenties range. Biden would be on pace for Baldwin level statewide victory if he’s winning more than the aforementioned larger cities in the county.
A fun fact about Wood County is it is the largest producer of cranberries in the world. The United States produces the most cranberries of any nation on earth and of that Wisconsin produces 65% of the entire American crop, with Wood County producing the most of any county in the state. Also paper industry was crucial to the local economy here, but unfortunately the major plan shown in the picture above is closing as a result of the lack in demand for paper due to COVID-19.
Badger State Elections 