- Counties: Calumet, Outagamie, and Winnebago
- 2019 Population: 409,881 (7.04%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentage: 6.91%
- August 1, 2020 Registered Voters: 235,488 (6.88% of state totals)
- Race and Ethnicity: 87.90% White, 4.47% Hispanic, 3.21% Asian, 1.73% Black, 1.59% 2+, 1.04% American Indian
- Ancestry: 45.83% German, 9.78% Irish, 6.86% Polish, 6.46% Dutch, 4.53% English
- Median Income: $58,413
- Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 38.9%
The Fox Cities region is comprised of the counties that make up the Appleton-Oshkosh-Neenah, WI Combined Statistical Area (CSA). This includes the Appleton Metro Area which includes Calumet and Outagamie counties and the Oshkosh-Neenah Metro Area which is just Winnebago County. The Appleton-Oshkosh-Neenah CSA is the third largest CSA that is wholly in the State of Wisconsin, only behind Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha and Madison-Janesville-Beloit. The core of this CSA is centered around the City of Appleton at the top of Lake Winnebago. This is where the lower Fox River flows out of the lake in a northeasterly direction and into Green Bay. There are a number of suburbs and sister cities that surround Appleton including Neenah, Fox Crossing, Menasha, Kaukauna, and Little Chute among others. There is a secondary population core on the west central shore of Lake Winnebago comprised of the City of Oshkosh.
At first, I was planning on including Brown County into this region. There are a number of strong ties between that county and this region. They share the same media market and it is not a long distance between Kaukauna and the start of the Green Bay suburbs. The issue is this would have then required I also include the remaining counites that are here in Northeast Wisconsin: Door, Kewaunee, and Manitowoc. There are not enough people in these three counties to warrant their own region, but their inclusion with Brown County would have resulted in the Fox Cities being largest region in the state by population by a huge margin. I also in my researched discovered an item that solidly tied Brown County with both Kewaunee and Manitowoc counties that made me feel much better about them being in their own region. Fond du Lac County also could have been included in this region. It would have completed the entire loop of counties around Lake Winnebago, plus there are a number of cultural connections between Fond du Lac and this region. For instance, Fond du Lac High School sports teams are in the same conference as schools in the core Fox Cities. However, it made more sense to use Fond du Lac as a connector between Dodge County and Sheboygan County in the Milwaukee Exurbs region in addition to the previously discussed ties it has with the Milwaukee Exurbs.
Demographically, the Fox Cites region is not that much different from the state as a whole. It is about seven points whiter than the state, but this difference is on the lower end of the spectrum. Its post-secondary degree attainment percentage is almost exactly the same as the state as a whole and its median income is only $3,803 higher than the state medium. The only thing different that really jumps out is that the Fox Cities region has the highest percentage of Dutch American compared to any other region in the state. This Dutch community is primarily in the Village of Little Chute and the towns of Kaukauna and Vandebroek. This higher than average Dutch population is probably a component as to why this region is more Republican than other urban areas of the same size both statewide and nationally.
- PVI: R+5
- Presidential Margins: Obama (08) +11% -> Romney +1% -> Trump 12%
- 2018 Margins: Walker 10% | Baldwin 2%
Historically this has always been a pretty Republican region and metropolitan area. Even back in the day when the Republican Party was split between Progressive and Conservative Stalwarts, and the Democratic Party was an afterthought, this region stuck with the conservative side of the Republican Party. In fact, this was Joe McCarthy’s base in his primary run in 1946 against incumbent Senator Robert LaFollette Jr. It has really only been in the last twenty years or so that the two largest cities in the region, Appleton and Oshkosh, have moved at into the lean Democratic camp. The other cities and villages of decent size are for the most part toss ups or lean to the Republicans. This is Senator Ron Johnson’s home region and the boost he’s been able to get here has helped him in both of his elections against former Senator Russ Feingold.
In today’s environment, the goal for Biden or any Democrat is to keep the margin reasonably close here. Around a ten-point loss or better in this region typically means they can prevent the Republican from accumulating a large vote total here and get enough elsewhere to win statewide. Clinton’s twelve-point loss here in 2016 was probably right at the line at what she could afford to give Trump and still win statewide, if she had done better in other regions. One only has to look at the fact Evers still lost here by ten points, but that was enough to win statewide. Winning the region as Obama did in 2008 and Baldwin in 2018 means they are winning statewide by double digits. Obama’s win here in 2008 was pretty incredible. He won Outagamie and Winnebago counties by double digits and even won Calumet County. I doubt we’ll see anything like that again moving forward, unless the major municipalities were to take a stronger blue turn here.
- 2019 Population: 50,089 (0.86%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 0.89%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 30,340 (0.89% of state totals)
- PVI: R+10
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +23%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +23%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +9%
- Municipalities: Village of Harrison (12,358 – Partially in Outagamie County) Trump +22%
Calumet County is the most Republican county of this trio and outside of northwest corner is very exurban/rural. It is also a very Germany county. Biden will want to improve on the margins of both Clinton and Evers here by only losing in the high teens here. The place I would look on election day are the precincts of the City of Appleton that are in the northwest corner of the county. Clinton barely lost here and Evers only won by about a point. Biden will want to win here by at least a five-point margin. Biden would be on his way to a big statewide win if he’s also winning the City of Menasha’s precincts that are also in the northwest part of the county. Baldwin won those by three points. Trump would like to sweep this county again and push his margin into the upper twenties.
- 2019 Population: 187,885 (3.23%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 3.11%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 108,075 (3.16% of state totals)
- PVI: R+5
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +13%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +11%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +0%
- Municipalities: City of Appleton (74,098 – Partially in Calumet and Winnebago counties) Clinton +6, City of Kaukauna (16,270 – Partially in Calumet County) Trump +6, Village of Little Chute (12,081) Trump +12%
The sixth most populated county in the state, Outagamie County is the home to many of the major cities and villages in this region. The City of Appleton is a place where Biden would like to improve on Clinton’s margin and get close to a ten-point win. However, if there is one place to look on election day, it is the City of Kaukauna. Clinton lost it by five-points and Evers lost it by a point, while Baldwin won it by eleven. If Biden can pull out a win here, it means he’s probably getting enough to win statewide. If Biden is winning any other municipality in the county, he’s probably winning big statewide. Trump’s goal here would be to reduce Biden’s margin in the City of Appleton down to the low single digits. If Trump is winning Appleton, he’s on his way to a big statewide win.
- 2019 Population: 171,907 (2.95%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 2.94%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 97,073 (2.84% of state totals)
- PVI: R+3
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +8%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +4%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +6%
- Municipalities: City of Oshkosh (67,004) Clinton +5, City of Neenah (26,300) Trump +1, Village of Fox Crossing (19,012) Trump +11%, City of Menasha (17,873) Clinton +0%
Winnebago County is just a bit to the right of being a statewide bellwether. A Democrat winning here means they are probably winning statewide. Biden’s goal should be to win this county. The place to look on election day is the City of Neenah. Clinton lost here by a little under a point and Evers won by less than half of a point, while Baldwin won by over eleven. If Biden can win here by around three points, he’s probably winning the county. Biden would also like to push that margin in the City of Oshkosh up to around ten points. Also, If Biden is winning the Village of Fox Crossing, he’s on his way to a big statewide win. Trump would love to flip the City of Menasha, which he almost won, and maybe go for the sweep and win the City of Oshkosh.
Badger State Elections 