- Counties: Brown, Door, Kewaunee, and Manitowoc
- 2019 Population: 391,625 (6.73%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentage: 6.65%
- September 1, 2020 Registered Voters: 230,646 (6.63% of state totals)
- Race and Ethnicity: 83.86% White, 7.42% Hispanic, 2.89% Asian, 2.11% Black, 1.91% American Indian, 1.77% 2+
- Ancestry: 40.01% German, 9.25% Irish, 9.10% Polish, 7.05% Belgian, 4.29% Norwegian
- Median Income: $53,447
- Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 37.9%
Fox Valley & Thumb region is centered around the core of Green Bay Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA). This includes Brown County, the primary county in the MSA, and Kewaunee County. Due to geographic constraints, Door County was also included in this region as its only land connection is with Kewaunee County. Finally, Manitowoc County rounds out this region. It’s inclusion here is not a perfect fit. However, compared to the alternatives, this was the only region that made sense. Manitowoc County is not part of the Appleton urban cluster that makes up the Fox Cities and while there are ties to Sheboygan County, the connections to Green Bay greatly outweigh the connections to the Milwaukee area.
In terms of counties that could have been included here, Oconto County is probably the biggest omission. Oconto County is part of the Green Bay MSA and the urban buildup of the Green Bay area does bleed over into the county. However, the vast majority of the county is very rural with a decent percentage covered by the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest. It also makes sense to pair this county with Marinette County in the Eastern Northwoods region. Menominee and Shawano counties are both part of the Green Bay-Shawano Combined Statistical Areas (CSA). However, there are even less direction connections with Brown County for these two counties than were present in Oconto County. Finally, I considered adding Sheboygan County here. There are some connections with Manitowoc Counties as they are situated around mid-sized industrial cities on Lake Michigan. Plus, the two Sheboygan city high schools compete in the same sports conference with schools in the Fox Valley. However, there are just too many ties in Sheboygan County with the rest of the Milwaukee Exurbs and the Milwaukee Suburbs, such as being in the Milwaukee Media Market, for its inclusion here.
As I previously mentioned in the Fox Cities article, I originally planned to include Brown County with the Fox Cities. There has been increased discussion and analysis of the group of counties known as the “BOW” (Brown, Outagamie, and Winnebago) counties on their importance to elections in the state of Wisconsin. The issue was that the rest of the counties that make up this region (Door, Kewaunee, and Manitowoc) would have been too small to make up their own region and including them with the Fox Cities would have resulted in a region that was too populated and had too many different parts. In the end I had to make the tough choice and split Brown from the Fox Cities. At first, I was worried that his region would not make a ton of sense and would really feel too much like two different areas grouped together. That was until I found that put together this region is super Catholic.
In doing the research for a future supplemental article regarding the religious breakdown of Wisconsin, I found that this region was incredibly Catholic. Wisconsin as a whole is a pretty Catholic state at 46.78% of all adherents. However, this region is on another level at 64.23%. The next closest region (Central Wisconsin) is at only 53.13%. Door County has the lowest percentage of the four counties and it is still over the state percentage at 48.41%. There are some other interesting items when looking at this regions Demographics. For one this region is home to the largest Belgian American population in the United States. This can be found in the region around southwest Door County, northwest Kewaunee County. In terms of race, this region is only three points whiter than the state, which makes it the most diverse region in the northern part of the state. Also, the median income here is only $1,163 less the state and the post-secondary degree attainment almost the same as the state percentage.
- PVI: R+5
- Presidential Margins: Obama (08) +10% -> Romney +1% -> Trump +14%
- 2018 Margins: Walker +12% | Baldwin 1%
A long time ago this was one of the more Democratic regions in the state. From the founding to the state until the early 1900’s this region consistently leaned towards the Democratic Party. This makes sense as Catholics were the core consistency of the Democratic Party in the state at the time. Brown County started to shift to the Republicans in the 20th Century and Door County has consistently leaned Republican until only the last couple decades. Kewanee and Manitowoc counties remained pretty Democratic throughout the last century. They were some of Kennedy’s strongest counties in 1960, with Brown County flipping too for JFK, even as Nixon won the state. Nixon was unable to break 50% in either Kewaunee or Manitowoc in his 1972 landslide against McGovern and Dukakis won them both in 1988. Things started to fade here starting in 2000 as both Gore and Kerry lost these two counties, while still winning statewide. This would have previously been considered unthinkable. Obama won them back in 2008, but they both saw massive Republican swings in both 2012 and 2016. Clinton did poorly here compared to Obama’s elections and Evers only improved here by about two points. He did better in the core Green Bay urban area but did worse than Clinton in large parts of Manitowoc County and the more touristy towns in northern Door County.
Statistically this region looks a lot like the Fox Valley in terms of how it votes, but I struggle to put my finger on how it’s going to go here in the 2020 election. I could totally see a situation where both Kewaunee and Manitowoc counties continue to move to the right, while Brown and Door counties move to the left. Biden’s goal should be to keep Trump’s margin below double digits here, like in the Fox Cities. This is also region where Biden’s emphasis on his Catholic faith could have a positive effect on the margins, given just how Catholic this region is. Trump will want to expand on his 2016 performance and get that margin up closer to twenty.
- 2019 Population: 264,542 (4.54%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 4.33%
- September 1, 2020 Voter Registration: 151,662 (4.36% of state totals)
- PVI: R+5
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +11%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +9%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +3%
- Municipalities: City of Green Bay (104,578) Clinton +4%, City of De Pere (24,970) Trump +5, Village of Howard (20,177 – Partially in Outagamie County) Trump +21%, Village of Ashwaubenon (17,161) Trump +12%, Village of Bellevue (15,944) Trump +12%, Village of Allouez (13,894) Trump +2%, Village of Suamico (13,052) Trump +37%, Village of Hobart (10,082) Trump +21%
Brown County is the fourth largest county in Wisconsin and while it leans to the Republicans, it can be won by the Democrats if they are winning by a large enough margin statewide. Biden has a couple objectives here in Brown County. Green Bay is the third largest city in the state and Biden would like to increase the margin in the city up into the high single digits at least. The second would be to win another municipality in the county. The Village of Allouez is the best candidate, but the City of De Pere is another possibility. If Biden is winning one of these municipalities, he’s getting what he needs in Brown County. If he’s winning any other municipality like the Village of Ashwaubenon or the Village of Bellevue, he’s probably winning the county and winning statewide by double digits. Trump’s objective here is much simpler. He would like to make up those last four points in the City of Green Bay and sweep the county. This would probably result in a win here for Trump of over fifteen points.
- 2019 Population: 27,668 (0.48%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 0.61%
- September 1, 2020 Voter Registration: 20,744 (0.60% of state totals)
- PVI: R+1
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +3%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +1%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +12%
- Municipalities: City of Sturgeon Bay (8,934) Clinton +7%
Door County is pretty close to a bellwether county for Wisconsin. Southern Door County, rural but more populated than the northern part, is pretty Republican. The northern part of the county, also pretty rural but much more touristy, leans Democratic. Sturgeon Bay, the largest municipality in the county, also leans to the left. Put together this results in a county that is just ever so slightly more Republican than the state as a whole. The place to look here on election day would be the City of Sturgeon Bay. Biden’s goal would be to win here by over ten points. This would probably result in him winning the county. If Biden is winning any of the towns south of the tourist towns (anything south of the Village of Egg Harbor) he’s on pace to a big statewide win. Trump’s goal would be to narrow the margins in those northern tourist towns.
- 2019 Population: 20,434 (0.35%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 0.36%
- September 1, 2020 Voter Registration: 12,335 (0.35%)
- PVI: R+10
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +29%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +24%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +9%
- Municipalities: City of Algoma (3,048) Trump +0%
This is a very rural county and the second most Catholic county (72.97%) in Wisconsin. Polling has indicated that Joe Biden is in a stronger position than recent Democratic candidates when it comes to White Catholics. If that is the case, this would be a place where that should be evident. I’m not saying Biden will win here, but he see a decent improvement compared to Clinton. The place I would look when the results come in is the City of Algoma. Biden’s goal should be to win this city by five points or more. Hillary lost here by less than a quarter of the point and Evers won by about two and half points. If Biden is winning any other town or municipality, he would be on pace for a large statewide win. Trump’s goal would be to sweep the county again and push his win into the mid-thirties.
- 2019 Population: 78,981 (1.36%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 1.35%
- September 1, 2020 Voter Registration: 45,905 (1.32%)
- PVI: R+8
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +23%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +23%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +6%
- Municipalities: City of Manitowoc (32,579) Trump +10%, City of Two Rivers (11,041) Trump +11
Manitowoc County is an industrial county on Lake Michigan with an economy that was built around shipping and ship construction. Trump had a near historic result for a Republican in 2016 and Scott Walker was able to match it in 2018. Biden’s goal here would be to get that margin down into the high teens. The place I would look in November is the City of Two Rivers. Clinton lost here by about eleven points, Evers by six, but Baldwin won by over nine. Biden would love to get the margin here to under three points or even win the city if possible. If he’s winning here and the City of Manitowoc it means he’s done a solid job regaining a portion of Obama-Trump voters and is on pace for a Baldwin like win. Trump’s goal here is to sweep the county again and push that margin into the high twenties.
Badger State Elections 