Tag: Dane County

Dane County

City Skyline – Madison, Wisconsin
  • Counties: Dane
  • 2019 Population: 546,695 (9.39%)
  • Average Vote from Region Percentages: 10.70%
  • August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 364,622 (10.66%)
  • Race and Ethnicity: 79.23% White, 6.54% Hispanic, 6.23% Asian, 5.26% Black, 2.41% 2+
  • Ancestry: 36.76% German, 13.38% Irish, 10.80% Norwegian, 8.46% English, 5.50% Polish
  • Median Income: $64,773
  • Post-Secondary Attainment: 58.9%

When dividing up the state into regions, it was pretty obvious that Dane County needed to be its own region. For one it encapsulates almost all of the immediate Madison orbit. The primary city, suburbs, and main exurbs are all present in Dane County. The surrounding counties are influenced by Madison, no doubt, but there is no direct connection like you see with the Milwaukee suburban counties and Milwaukee.

Second, the economy is fundamentally different here than the surrounding areas and the rest of the state. The two largest employers, the State of Wisconsin and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, typically do not experience the same pains that the private sector experiences during economic downturns. There is also booming biotech industry fronted by Epic Systems in Verona. Epic Systems is a healthcare software company, which according to the company, hospitals that use its software held medical records of 54% of patients in the United States. It’s not shocking then to find out that 58.9% of the over 25 population of Dane County has a post-secondary degree, about twenty points higher than the state’s percentage. The median income is also $10,000 higher than the state median, good for the third highest region in the state.

Not surprising given the historically strong economy, Dane County is also the fastest growing county and region in the state. Its population has increased by 12.01% since 2010. If this growth continues, Dane County could pass the Milwaukee Suburbs to become the largest region in the state within the next fifteen years. Also, Dane County’s race and ethnicity breakdown makes it the closest region to the state percentages, only differing by a few points. Same thing for the ancestry numbers as well. Lastly, note how this region votes about one point better than its state population percentage. This allows Dane County to help balance out the over performance that the Republicans get out of the WOW counties.

That’s not to say there isn’t any blead over into the surrounding counties that make them Dane County lite. Places like Prairie du Sauk/Sauk City, Lodi, Columbus, New Glarus, Evansville, and Lake Mills all have education attainment higher than their respective counties and all have high commuter connections to Madison. However, the majority of those counties are different enough from Dane County to be a part of a different region(s).

On a final personal note, this is my home county and the region I know best in the state. I was born in St. Mary’s Hospital in Madison in 1988 and lived in Monona for the first year of my life. I then moved to Cottage Grove and grew up there. I went to middle school and then high school in Monona (Cottage Grove and Monona have a joint school district, even though Madison is in-between) and almost all of my immediate family has lived in the county my entire life. I then moved to Madison to attend the University of Wisconsin-Madison for undergrad.

  • PVI: D+22
  • Presidential Margin: Obama (08) +48%-> Obama (12) +44%-> Clinton +51%
  • 2018 Margin: Baldwin +55 | Evers +52
  • Municipalities: City of Madison (259,680) Clinton +68%, City of Sun Prairie (34,661) Clinton +33, City of Fitchburg (30,792) Clinton +55%, City of Middleton (20,034) Clinton +56%, Village of Waunakee (14,052) Clinton +21%, City of Verona (13,233) Clinton +42%, City of Stoughton (13,114) Clinton +37%, Village of DeForest (10,691) Clinton +25%, Village of Oregon (10,571) Clinton +37%

As you can tell from the statistics above, Dane County is a very Democratic county. It is also the most liberal county in the state. It voted against the constitutional amendment to ban same sex marriage and against reinstating the death penalty in an advisory referendum, both in 2006. Obama did not lose a single municipality, town, or even ward in both of his elections. Even Trump, with his relatively impressive performance in the rural towns in the county, only managed two win two. Dane County has always been a pretty strong Democratic county, but it hasn’t always been as dominant as it is right now. Republicans regularly won many of the outer cities and villages, especially to the north of Madison. Plus, many of the margins were not as large for Democrats as they are now. The legacy of the George W. Bush administration pushed this county from 30-point wins for Democrats to mid 40-point wins. Trump pushed this number up pas 50 points in 2016 and I would be shocked if the margin was larger in 2020.

Now the question is how large can the margin get this year in Dane County. In recent non-partisan elections, the liberal candidate has been getting around 80% of the vote. I’m not sure if Biden can get to that level as even Tammy Baldwin only got to 77.5% in her major statewide win. There is however definingly room for Biden to grow here, as both Baldwin and Evers did better than Clinton did in 2016.

The first place I would look on election night is the rural towns in the county that Trump won. In particular I would look is the Town of Vienna between the Village of DeForest and the Village of Dane. Biden will want to win this town like Evers did. If he’s losing here, he’s probably having issues statewide. If Biden is winning the Town of Dane, he’s is probably on pace for a large win in the state. Trump is going to want to improve on his rural standing in the towns here and maybe pick up a town like Bristol or York in Northeast Dane County.

In terms of municipalities to watch, the place to look at is the Village of Dane. It was the closest municipality in 2016 with Clinton only winning with a five-point plurality. Biden would like to get a majority win here of at least five to six points. Anything larger and he’s feeling great, while Trump would love to win this village. Finally, when it comes to the City of Madison, Biden will want to clear 80% of the vote here. Hillary Clinton only got 78% of the vote, but Evers got to 82.5% and Baldwin got to 84%. This should be an easy place for Biden to pick up votes on Clinton and may be necessary if the more rural areas continue to swing to the right.

No need for a county level breakdown as we are only dealing with Dane County in this region.