Madison Exurbs

Lower Dells – Wisconsin Dells, Wisconsin

Counties: Columbia, Green, Iowa, Rock, and Sauk
2019 Population: 345,966 (5.94%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 5.68%
June 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 195,554 (5.72% of the state totals)
Race and Ethnicity: 88.55% White, 5.65% Hispanic, 2.71% Black, 1.63% 2+, 1.05% Asian
Ancestry: 39.54% German, 14.14% Irish, 11.43% Norwegian, 8.53% English, 4.30% Polish
Median Income: $54,134
Post-Secondary Attainment: 32.5%

This region is comprised of the counties that make up the Madison–Janesville–Beloit Combined Statistical Area, minus the previously discussed Dane County. This includes Columbia, Green, and Iowa counties which are a part of Madison Metropolitan Statistical Area, Rock County which makes up the Janesville–Beloit Statistical Area, and Sauk County which comprises the Baraboo Micropolitan Statistical Area. It is about eight points whiter than the state as a whole, yet pretty close to the statewide percentages across the major ancestries in Wisconsin. The median income in the region is the closest to the state median, yet its post-secondary degree attainment is a little over six points lower than the state percentage. This puts it in the bottom third group of regions.

The common feature here is their direct exurban connection to the City of Madison and Dane County. Many of the communities in these counties have a large number of commuters that go into Madison for work. All of these counties are in the Madison Media Market and there are strong cultural ties to Dane County, such as a large number of high schools in this region that share sports conferences with schools in Dane County and similar ancestry numbers. There are, however, enough differences that warrant this being its own region rather than being in a region with Dane County. All five counties are more rural than Dane County and have a political culture distinct from the more then Democratic Dane County both historically and in the present day.

One could make the argument that Rock County belongs in the Southeast region as it was also heavily settled by New England Yankees and was once a Republican stronghold. However, it’s direct ties to the Chicagoland area are much less than the rest of the Southeast region. Iowa, Green, and Sauk counties are geographically in the Driftless Region and therefore there is a decent argument that they should be included in the Southwest region. However, the previously discussed connections to the Madison area outweigh the influence the Driftless Area has on these counties. There are also some connections with Columbia County and the Milwaukee Exurbs as there is a large Dutch community that straddles Columbia County and Dodge County centered around the Village of Randolph.

Jefferson County could have been included in this region as many of its western municipalities have a strong connection to Madison. As previously mentioned however, Jefferson County is in the Milwaukee Media Market and the Milwaukee Combined Statistical Area. In addition, Watertown, its largest municipality that it splits with Dodge County, is more orientated towards Milwaukee. It is possible there could come a day where it would make sense to shift Jefferson County to this region due to future population growth, economic connections, and growing cultural ties. Lafayette County was also considered for this region, but it is even more rural than the counties here and has a much stronger connection places in the Southwest region like Platteville in Grant County, which will be explored in more detail in the next breakdown.

Historically this region was traditionally very Republican. The Yankee vote in Rock County, Swiss vote in Green County, and the German/Dutch vote in Sauk and Columbia counties all resulted in these counties typically voting Republican. Only Iowa County had a more Democratic voting tradition that traced its history back to miners from the Upper South settling here in the early history of the state. As these influences began to fade in the mid-Twentieth Century the region became pretty Democratic by the 1990’s and Obama dominated here in both of his elections.

PVI: D+5
Presidential Margin: Obama (08) +26%->Obama (12) +21%->Clinton +6%
2018 Margin: Evers +15% | Baldwin +22

I would argue that this was the most disappointing region for Hillary Clinton in the 2016. The fifteen-point swing away from what Obama got in 2012 was embarrassing, especially with the hindsight of seeing a strong Democratic bounce back here in 2018. All she needed was a few additional points here and she would have won statewide. One can see in the swing map below that Evers improved on Clinton’s margin almost everywhere in this region. This is the region were Biden needs to expand the most on the 2016 margin and I think he can. The Evers margin would be good but getting closer to Baldwin’s would be even better. If I had to rank the regions in terms of importance for Biden, the Madison exurbs would rank at number one. Trump would be thrilled if he can keep it close to the 2016 margin.

The general rule of thumb here is that all of the major municipalities are pretty Democratic, some more than other. The exception of the City of Reedsburg, which can go Republican, as it did for Trump in 2016. The rural towns are also pretty Democratic compared to other rural areas in the state. For the most part the closer to Madison the town is the more Democratic the town tends to be and vice versa. Most of the towns that border Dane County are Democratic, while most that border either Illinois or other regions (Southeast, Milwaukee Exurbs, and East Central) are Republican.

Columbia County

2019 Population: 57,532 (0.99%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.00%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 34,205 (1.00% of the state totals)
PVI: D+1
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +2%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +7%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +13%
Municipalities: City of Portage (10,399) Clinton +9%

Columbia County is a county that Democrats have to win in order to win statewide. It’s close to a bellwether, but slightly more crucial to Democrats than Republicans. The Town of Leeds is a place to keep an eye on when the results come in. It almost nailed the margin for both the Gubernatorial and Senate races statewide in 2018. Biden is doing well statewide if he’s winning here. Another place would be the Village of Arlington which almost nailed the statewide numbers in 2016. If Biden is winning Marcellon Town in the northern part of the county, he’s winning big statewide. While Trump would love to continue the rural tend and win every town in the county.

Green County

2019 Population: 36,960 (0.63%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.64%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 21,616 (0.63% of the state totals)
PVI: D+3
2016 Presidential Margin: Clinton +2%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +12%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +21%
Municipalities: City of Monroe (10,565) Clinton +7%

Green County, like all of the counties in this region, is another county that Biden needs to improve on Clinton’s margin in. Instead of picking out a single municipality or town to point out, I’m going to advise people look at the second line of towns that go east to west. Hillary Clinton only won the Town of Washington. The minimum here for Biden in Green County is he has to also win the Towns of Adams, Albany, and Mount Pleasant. Team Biden would be thrilled if they could win a few of the towns in the third-row further south like Evers and Baldwin did. Trump would like to limit Biden’s rural town success here to just the towns in the northern tier that border Dane County.

Iowa County

2019 Population: 23,678 (0.41%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 0.42%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 14,197 (0.42% of the state totals)
PVI: D+10
2016 Presidential Margin: Clinton +16%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +22%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +31%
Municipalities: City of Dodgeville (4,695) Clinton +23

This is yet another county were Biden could like push the margin up. Iowa County is the most rural county in this region and the only one without a municipality in the top 100 list based on population. That said it also has the highest Democratic PVI. The Town of Highland in the western part of the county has been very close to the statewide margin in both the 2016 Presidential race and the 2018 races. The winner of that town is probably winning statewide. Biden is probably winning by double digits statewide if he’s winning the towns in the southwestern corner of the county including Eden, Liden, Mifflin, and Mineral Point. Given the 2016 margins, it’s unlikely Trump could flip any of the towns or municipalities in this county, but even narrowing the margins here would be great sign for him statewide.

Rock County

2019 Population: 163,354 (2.81%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 2.56%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 88,817 (2.60% of the state totals)
PVI: D+7
2016 Presidential Margin: Clinton +11%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +19%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +26%
Municipalities: City of Janesville (64,575) Clinton +16%, City of Beloit (36,926) Clinton +25%

Rock County is the most populated and most urban county in this region. As such there is probably more for Biden to gain here. He should be trying to get at least a twenty-point margin here. The place to look at here is the Town of Beloit. Trump won this town by around seven points in 2016, but only narrowly got over 50%. Both Evers and Baldwin won here by around the percentage they won statewide. Biden will want to flip this town. Biden would be running up the score statewide if he can carry the Town of La Prairie southeast of the City of Janesville. Trump is probably on his way to winning by a good statewide margin if he’s flipping the towns of Center and Magnolia in the northwest part of the county.

Sauk County

Devil’s Lake State Park – Near Baraboo, Wisconsin

2019 Population: 64,442 (1.11%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.07%
June 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 36,719 (1.07% of the state totals)
PVI: D+3
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +0%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +11%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +18%
Municipalities: City of Baraboo (12,165) Clinton +10%, City of Reedsburg (9,521) Trump +8%

Another county that was a rough loss for Hillary Clinton and one that is necessary for Biden to flip if he’s to win in November. The City of Reedsburg is the prime place to look when results come in. Trump won here by eight points in 2016, but both Evers and Baldwin won here by solid margins in 2018. This is a city that Biden has to win. The former Vice President is probably cursing towards a double-digit win if he’s winning the Town of Prairie du Sac in the southeast part of the county. Trump, on the other hand, is probably heading to a strong win if he can flip the last few towns that Hillary Clinton won in the southwest portion of the county: Bear Creek, Franklin, Honey Creek, and Spring Green.

Dane County

Counties: Dane
2019 Population: 546,695 (9.39%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 10.70%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 364,622 (10.66%)
Race and Ethnicity: 79.23% White, 6.54% Hispanic, 6.23% Asian, 5.26% Black, 2.41% 2+
Ancestry: 36.76% German, 13.38% Irish, 10.80% Norwegian, 8.46% English, 5.50% Polish
Median Income: $64,773
Post-Secondary Attainment: 58.9%

When dividing up the state into regions, it was pretty obvious that Dane County needed to be its own region. For one it encapsulates almost all of the immediate Madison orbit. The primary city, suburbs, and main exurbs are all present in Dane County. The surrounding counties are influenced by Madison, no doubt, but there is no direct connection like you see with the Milwaukee suburban counties and Milwaukee.

Second, the economy is fundamentally different here than the surrounding areas and the rest of the state. The two largest employers, the State of Wisconsin and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, typically do not experience the same pains that the private sector experiences during economic downturns. There is also booming biotech industry fronted by Epic Systems in Verona. Epic Systems is a healthcare software company, which according to the company, hospitals that use its software held medical records of 54% of patients in the United States. It’s not shocking then to find out that 58.9% of the over 25 population of Dane County has a post-secondary degree, about twenty points higher than the state’s percentage. The median income is also $10,000 higher than the state median, good for the third highest region in the state.

Not surprising given the historically strong economy, Dane County is also the fastest growing county and region in the state. Its population has increased by 12.01% since 2010. If this growth continues, Dane County could pass the Milwaukee Suburbs to become the largest region in the state within the next fifteen years. Also, Dane County’s race and ethnicity breakdown makes it the closest region to the state percentages, only differing by a few points. Same thing for the ancestry numbers as well. Lastly, note how this region votes about one point better than its state population percentage. This allows Dane County to help balance out the over performance that the Republicans get out of the WOW counties.

That’s not to say there isn’t any blead over into the surrounding counties that make them Dane County lite. Places like Prairie du Sauk/Sauk City, Lodi, Columbus, New Glarus, Evansville, and Lake Mills all have education attainment higher than their respective counties and all have high commuter connections to Madison. However, the majority of those counties are different enough from Dane County to be a part of a different region(s).

On a final personal note, this is my home county and the region I know best in the state. I was born in St. Mary’s Hospital in Madison in 1988 and lived in Monona for the first year of my life. I then moved to Cottage Grove and grew up there. I went to middle school and then high school in Monona (Cottage Grove and Monona have a joint school district, even though Madison is in-between) and almost all of my immediate family has lived in the county my entire life. I then moved to Madison to attend the University of Wisconsin-Madison for undergrad.

PVI: D+22
Presidential Margin: Obama (08) +48%-> Obama (12) +44%-> Clinton +51%
2018 Margin: Baldwin +55 | Evers +52
Municipalities: City of Madison (259,680) Clinton +68%, City of Sun Prairie (34,661) Clinton +33, City of Fitchburg (30,792) Clinton +55%, City of Middleton (20,034) Clinton +56%, Village of Waunakee (14,052) Clinton +21%, City of Verona (13,233) Clinton +42%, City of Stoughton (13,114) Clinton +37%, Village of DeForest (10,691) Clinton +25%, Village of Oregon (10,571) Clinton +37%

As you can tell from the statistics above, Dane County is a very Democratic county. It is also the most liberal county in the state. It voted against the constitutional amendment to ban same sex marriage and against reinstating the death penalty in an advisory referendum, both in 2006. Obama did not lose a single municipality, town, or even ward in both of his elections. Even Trump, with his relatively impressive performance in the rural towns in the county, only managed two win two. Dane County has always been a pretty strong Democratic county, but it hasn’t always been as dominant as it is right now. Republicans regularly won many of the outer cities and villages, especially to the north of Madison. Plus, many of the margins were not as large for Democrats as they are now. The legacy of the George W. Bush administration pushed this county from 30-point wins for Democrats to mid 40-point wins. Trump pushed this number up pas 50 points in 2016 and I would be shocked if the margin was larger in 2020.

Now the question is how large can the margin get this year in Dane County. In recent non-partisan elections, the liberal candidate has been getting around 80% of the vote. I’m not sure if Biden can get to that level as even Tammy Baldwin only got to 77.5% in her major statewide win. There is however definingly room for Biden to grow here, as both Baldwin and Evers did better than Clinton did in 2016.

The first place I would look on election night is the rural towns in the county that Trump won. In particular I would look is the Town of Vienna between the Village of DeForest and the Village of Dane. Biden will want to win this town like Evers did. If he’s losing here, he’s probably having issues statewide. If Biden is winning the Town of Dane, he’s is probably on pace for a large win in the state. Trump is going to want to improve on his rural standing in the towns here and maybe pick up a town like Bristol or York in Northeast Dane County.

In terms of municipalities to watch, the place to look at is the Village of Dane. It was the closest municipality in 2016 with Clinton only winning with a five-point plurality. Biden would like to get a majority win here of at least five to six points. Anything larger and he’s feeling great, while Trump would love to win this village. Finally, when it comes to the City of Madison, Biden will want to clear 80% of the vote here. Hillary Clinton only got 78% of the vote, but Evers got to 82.5% and Baldwin got to 84%. This should be an easy place for Biden to pick up votes on Clinton and may be necessary if the more rural areas continue to swing to the right.

No need for a county level breakdown as we are only dealing with Dane County in this region.

Milwaukee Exurbs

Aztalan State Park – Near Lake Mills, Wisconsin

Counties: Dodge, Fond du Lac, Jefferson and Sheboygan
2019 Population: 391,351 (6.72%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 6.58%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 185,707 (6.58% of state totals)
Race and Ethnicity: 88.87% White, 5.50% Hispanic, 1.89% Black, 1.38% American Indian, 1.25% 2+, 1.07% Asian
Ancestry: 50.79% German, 10.26% Irish, 6.25% Polish, 4.97% English, 4.87% Dutch
Median Income: $55,481
Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 32.0%

The counties that make up this region are in the outer ring of the Milwaukee Combined Statistical Area (Dodge and Jefferson) and the Milwaukee Media Market (Sheboygan). Fond du Lac County was included in this region due to their ancestral, municipal, and political ties to both Dodge and Sheboygan counties. For instance, the City of Waupun, the 82nd largest municipality in the state, straddles the Dodge and Fond du Lac County border. Also, this region is historically and today the most German (both historically Catholic and Protestant) region in the state. At 50.79% German, it is the only region in the state where the majority of the population claim an ancestry. It also has a heavy Dutch influence, especially in southern Sheboygan County, which bleeds over into Fond du Lac County. This German and Dutch combination is one reason why this region is so Republican. Historically, like Ozaukee and Washington counties, the Dodge and Jefferson County combo was once one of the most Democratic areas of the state because of how German it was. It also shifted to the Republicans because of the anti-German hysteria brought about by World War One and the backlash to FDR’s New Deal.

The Milwaukee Exurbs are also whiter than the state as a whole, but interestingly not as white as the Milwaukee Suburbs region. It is also the first region with an American Indian population over one percent. The median income slightly higher than the state median, but by less than $1,000. Plus, the post-secondary degree attainment is almost seven points lower than the state percentage.

There are arguments that could be made that every county in this region could be with a different region and most are legit. Sheboygan County has a strong connection with Manitowoc and Green Bay. They could easily be in the Fox Valley & Thumb region. The City of Sheboygan high school teams compete against primarily schools to its north. I decided against this due to the strong Dutch present in the southern part of the county and how it bleeds into Fond du Lac County, plus its inclusion in the Milwaukee Media Market. Fond du Lac County could probably be included with the Fox Cities Region to complete the entire loop around Lake Winnebago. Similar to Sheboygan, Fond du Lac High School plays against schools to its north. However, the previously explained ties to Dodge and Sheboygan counties overrode that idea. Finally, both western Dodge and Jefferson counties are definitely more orientated towards the City of Madison and Dane County. Beaver Dam, Fort Atkinson, Lake Mills, and Waterloo are all satellite municipalities that primarily orbit Madison rather than Milwaukee. The stronger than average German ancestry in the eastern parts of these counties, the strong tie of the City of Watertown to Milwaukee, and being in the Milwaukee Combined Statistical Area/Media Market won out in the end. Lastly, an argument could be made that Walworth County should be included here as it is included in both the Milwaukee Combined Statistical Area and the Milwaukee Media Market. However, the strong cultural ties to both the Chicagoland area, plus Kenosha and Racine counties make its inclusion in the Southeast region the clear choice.

PVI: R+10
Presidential Margin: McCain +4% -> Romney +12% -> Trump +23%
2018 Margin: Vukmir +11% | Walker +22%

This is a region that has been pretty Republican in recent history and is only getting more Republican. I should note that Obama’s 2008 margin of only losing by four points is incredible for a Democrat and something we haven’t seen here at the Presidential level since 1964. Even still, comparing the more normal Democratic number here in 2012 and 2016 you can see that Republicans are making gains. However, its sort of a difficult region for Republicans break out of a certain range as there actually are some Democratic areas (Beaver Dam, Sheboygan, Western Jefferson County, etc.) that unlike the WOW counties that help balance out the extremely Republican areas, at least a little bit. That’s part of why I don’t really see this as a very pivotal region in 2020 as long as nothing out of the ordinary happens like Biden cutting the margin into the high single digits or Trump getting close to a thirty-point win.

Dodge County

Horicon National Wildlife Refuge – Near Kekoskee, Wisconsin

2019 Population: 87,839 (1.51%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.43%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 48,646 (1.42% of state totals)
PVI: R+13
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +30%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +27%
2018 Senate Margin: Trump +15%
Municipalities: City of Beaver Dam (16,403) Clinton +1%, City of Waupun (11,199 – Partially in Fond du Lac County) Trump +32

Dodge County is home to the Fitzgerald family that has been essentially running the state, along with Scott Walker before 2019, for the last 10 years. It is a very Republican County. One place to look here when results come in on election day is the City of Beaver Dam. Hillary Clinton barely won in what is typically pretty reliable Democratic municipality. If this margin is similar this year, Trump will be happy. Biden would love to match the 9-point win Evers got here. If Biden is winning any other municipality or town in this county, he’s in for a big win in Wisconsin. Same for Trump is he’s sweeping the county.

Fond du Lac County

Little White Schoolhouse – Ripon, Wisconsin

2019 Population: 103,403 (1.78%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.71%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 56,799 (1.66% of state totals)
PVI: R+12
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +28%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +26%
2018 Senate Margin: Trump +14%
Municipalities: City of Fond du Lac (43,263) Trump +12%

Fond du Lac county is an interesting mixture of different political cultures that are prevalent in the state. Each area of the county is similar to the bordering counties and regions. They all are a little different, but the one similarity is they are all very Republican. In some cases, like 70-80% Republican. The municipality to look at here is the City of Ripon. The birthplace of the Republican Party, Ripon is ironically the municipality most likely to go Democratic in the county. Yes, Hillary Clinton lost it by seven points and Evers by close to five, but Obama won this in 2012 and Baldwin won this by eleven points in 2018! Biden would like to get this margin down to less than three points and winning it would not be out of the question. Trump would like to keep that margin higher. Biden is winning the state by a big margin if he’s winning anywhere else in the county like Baldwin did in the City of Fond du Lac and the Village of North Fond du Lac in 2016. Trump would love to sweep this county again and win everything by at least a double-digit margin.

Jefferson County

2019 Population: 84,769 (1.46%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.44%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 48,764 (1.43% of state totals)
PVI: R+8
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +17%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +15%
2018 Senate Margin: Trump +5%
Municipalities: City of Watertown (23,479 – Partially in Dodge County) Trump +29%, City of Fort Atkinson (12,422) Clinton +7%

Jefferson County is many ways is a county divided. In the eastern part of the county you have very German rural towns and the largest municipality in the county with the City of Watertown. Both of these items have much more common with the Milwaukee suburbs and are very Republican. On the western side you have towns with much closer margins and municipalities like Fort Atkinson and Lake Mills that produce margins which are definitely more in common with what you’d see in Dane County. The difference being the eastern half consistently outweighs the western half, both in population and margin. The place to look here when election results come in is the City of Jefferson. Biden would like to do a little bit better here than Evers and win this city. Trump would obviously like to prevent this. If Biden is winning the City of Jefferson plus the Town of Lake Mills, he would be thrilled. Trump would love to make further gains in the western rural areas and limit Biden to just Fort Atkinson and Lake Mills.

Sheboygan County

2019 Population: 115,340 (1.98%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 2.00%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 66,634 (1.95% of state totals)
PVI: R+8
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +17%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +20%
2018 Senate Margin: Trump +9%
Municipalities: City of Sheboygan (47,965) Clinton +9%

Sheboygan County is pretty easy to understand. Democrats win the City of Sheboygan; Republicans win everywhere else and that everywhere else greatly overpowers the city. The southern part of the county is arguably the most Republican area of the state. However, like other extremely Dutch areas in the country (Western Michigan for example), this area has swung away from the Republicans a little bit in the era of Trump. Republicans are now only in the 70 percent range here rather than the 80 percent they previously got. The place to look at here would actually be the City of Sheboygan. This was a place where Hillary Clinton did better than Evers, but Baldwin doubled Hillary’s margin. Biden would love to push that margin into the low to mid-double digits. Trump would love to get Walker’s margin here of only losing by around five points and if he does any better, he’d be really pleased. If Biden is winning any other municipality or town in this county, he’s winning by double digits statewide.

Milwaukee Suburbs

Holy Hill Basilica and National Shrine of Mary Help of Christians – Near Richfield, Wisconsin

Counties: Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha
2019 Population: 629,453 (10.81%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 12.61%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 419,805 (12.27% of state totals)
Race and Ethnicity: 89.40% White, 4.31% Hispanic, 3.12% Asian, 1.56% Black, 1.32% 2+
Ancestry: 48.08% German, 12.45% Irish, 11.93% Polish, 6.01% English, 5.24% Italian
Median Income: $76,572
Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 49.6%

These are the world famous ‘WOW’ counties. These three counties plus Milwaukee County make up the Milwaukee Metropolitan Area. This was a pretty obvious grouping given the notoriety this region has developed recently and the amount of study that has done looking into the divide between Milwaukee County and these three counties. Racine County was the only other county that could logically be included here as the Village of Caledonia could be considered a Milwaukee suburb rather than a Racine suburb, however it really makes sense to keep it connected to Kenosha County.

This is the largest region in the state by population, a little over 39,000 more people than the second largest region, Dane County. In recent history this is the most Republican region in the state. However, In the 19th Century this region was actually one of the most Democratic regions in the state. It was a heavily German area, especially Ozaukee and Washington counties, and at that time Germans were the core of the Democratic Party in Wisconsin. This began to reverse after America’s entry into World War One and anti-German discrimination the war caused. This reversal continued with the conservative backlash over the New Deal. Suburbanization and white flight in 1960’s and 1970’s were the last step and it cemented the Republican power here since. The lack of diversification compared to other metropolitan area suburbs, plus the relative lateness in suburbanization/white flight and a higher percentage of evangelical adherents make this area a tougher nut to crack for the Democrats than other suburban areas.

Today this region has the highest median income in the state. Over $21,000 more that the state medium. The Milwaukee Suburbs also have the second highest percentage of people who have attained a college degree at almost 50%.. It is about eight and half more points whiter than the rest of the state and is the second most German region in the state. Also, please note how this region outvotes its population percentage by about two percentage points. Compare that to the City of Milwaukee which undervotes it’s population percentage by over two points. Finally, it is important to remember that typically this region counts and reports its votes fast.

PVI: R+18
Presidential Margin: McCain +26% -> Romney +35% -> Trump +30%
2018 Margin: Vukmir +25% | Walker +36%

One thing I’ve noticed while doing my review of this region is how even though everyone always lumps these three counties together and many just see it as one giant conservative blob, there are fundamental differences once you look under the hood. Waukesha has also been the most stable county in this region with Trump doing only about three points better than McCain did against Obama in 2008. On the other hand, Washington County surged over twelve to the right since 2008, while Clinton actually improved on Obama’s 2008 margin by a point in Ozaukee County and she did fourteen points better than his 2012 margin!

The map above from J. Miles Coleman of Sabato’s Crystal Ball does a really does a good job of illustration this divergence. Typically, I don’t like comparing partisan fall elections with non-partisan spring elections, but this map does a really good job at showing us the changes in this region. The margin between Obama and McCain in 2008 and Daniel Kelly and Jill Karofsky in this year’s Supreme Court race in the WOW counties were almost identical, however you can see that there has been some major movement going in both directions at the municipal level. In particular with Waukesha County you can see that most of the municipalities that border Milwaukee County are moving to the left plus the areas that border I-94 going to Dane County, while the more rural and exurban areas are moving towards the right.

Ozaukee County

North Breakwater Light – Port Washington, Wisconsin

2019 Population: 89,221 (1.53%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.86%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 61,837 (1.81% of state totals)
PVI: R+14
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +20%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +27%
2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +16%
Municipalities: City of Mequon (24,382) Trump +12%, City of Port Washington (11,911) Trump +11%, Village of Grafton (11,715) Trump +21%, Village of Cedarburg (10,603) Trump +9%

In many ways one can view Ozaukee County as an extension of the Northeastern Suburbs in Milwaukee County. It is the more white-collar and cosmopolitan county of the three. If any of the three WOW counties are going to vote Democratic in the next 10-20 years, it will be Ozaukee County. The places to look at here is the City of Port Washington and the Villages of Cedarburg and Thiensville. Biden is probably getting what he needs here if these places if the margin is in the single digits. If he’s winning any of municipalities, he’s probably getting close to a fifteen-point win statewide. Trump would be feeling good if he’s winning those same municipalities in the high teens.

Washington County

Christ Evangelical Church – Germantown, Wisconsin

2019 Population: 136,034 (2.34%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 2.61%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 87,312 (2.55% of state totals)
PVI: R+22
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +43%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +46%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +34%
Municipalities: City of West Bend (31,563) Trump +31%, Village of Germantown (20,116) Trump +32%, City of Hartford (15,445) Trump +35%, Village of Richfield (11,854) Trump +50%

Washington County is the most Republican County in Wisconsin. It is the most rural and exurban of the three WOW counties. The villages of Germantown and Richfield are really the only traditional suburbs, with the other municipalities in the counties acting almost more like a combination of an exurban satellite city and a traditional suburb. A place to look here is probably the Village of Germantown. As being the most traditional suburb in this county, this is the place where we might see some further movement towards the center. If Biden can get the margin down here to under thirty points he would have to be thrilled, closer to twenty-five points and he’s probably getting close to Baldwin’s margin in the state. Trump will want to get Walker’s 2018 margin of almost forty points here.

Waukesha County

Old World Wisconsin – Near Eagle, Wisconsin

2019 Population: 404,198 (6.94%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 8.13%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 270,656 (7.91% of state totals)
PVI: R+17
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +29%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Trump +34
2018 Senate Margin: Trump +24
Municipalities: City of Waukesha (72,299) Trump +11%, City of New Berlin (39,691) Trump +24%, City of Brookfield (39,115) Trump +21%, Village of Menomonee Falls (38,014) Trump +21%, City of Muskego (25,127) Trump +39%, City of Oconomowoc (16,981) Trump +29%, City of Pewaukee (14,631) Trump +35%, Village of Sussex (10,981) Trump +32%, Village of Hartland (9,320) Trump +32%

First thing to note is that almost 2/3rds of this region’s population is solely in “Crucial” Waukesha County and it is the third most populated county in the state behind Milwaukee and Dane. The main place to do a deeper dive here is the City of Waukesha. This is one of the few places in this region that actually has typically reliable Democratic voting wards. Biden will want to keep the margin here below ten points, while Trump would obviously want it higher. If Biden is cutting that margin closer to five points like Baldwin did, he’s winning statewide by a lot. Trump again will want to get closer to that Walker margin of fifteen points. The City of Brookfield and Village of Menomonee Falls are other places too look at on election day with Biden wanting to keep the margin below twenty-five points and Trump wanting it to be higher.

City of Milwaukee

Counties: City of Milwaukee (Majority in Milwaukee County, with parts in Washington and Waukesha counties)
2019 Population: 590,157 (10.41%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 8.16%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 296,640 (8.67% of the state totals)
Race and Ethnicity: 39.20% Black, 36.00% White, 17.80% Hispanic, 3.80% Asian, 2.60% 2+
Ancestry: 16.48% German, 6.66% Polish, 5.87% Irish, 2.65% Italian, 2.16% English
Median Income: $36,801
Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 30.6%

The other half of Milwaukee County is the namesake city. Milwaukee is the largest city in the state of Wisconsin, the economic engine of the sate, and Wisconsin’s only 1st class city. It is also most Democratic region in the state. The Democratic dominance in the City is only as recent as the 1960’s, but Milwaukee has, since the early 20th Century, been a city of the “left.” As Alice Cooper made famous in Wayne’s World, Milwaukee is the only major American city to have elected three Socialist Mayors: Emil Seidel (1910–1912), Daniel Hoan (1916–1940), and Frank Zeidler (1948–1960). They were referred to as “Sewer Socialists” and were characterized by their practical approach to government and labor.

Depending the study, Milwaukee is a contender for the most segregated city in the United States. The northern part of city, outside of the far northwest, has massive African Americans majorities. Historically these neighborhoods were once dominated by German immigrants and their descendants prior to the white flight in the late 1960’s and 1970’s. The south-central section of the city has a very large Hispanic community, that is approximately 68% of Mexican descent and 25% of Puerto Rican descent. This region of the city was at one time very Polish. The Polonia neighborhood today is currently 65% Hispanic. Whites are still predominate along the lakeshore, the far south, and the western arms. German is the predominant ancestry, especially along the lakeshore and western arms, although there is still a large Polish population in the far southern part of the city around the airport. The area just north of Downtown was heavily Italian and at one time was referred to as “Milwaukee’s Little Italy.” Lastly, there is a growing Hmong population in the far northwestern part of the city.

To visually expand on this topic, John D. Johnson, a research fellow at Marquette Law School Lubar Center, recently released a great article and map breaking down the Milwaukee neighborhoods by race/ethnicity and discovering what areas are the most integrated. Here is the map:

Blue: Majority White
Green: Majority Black
Purple: Majority Latinx
Red: No Majority

Milwaukee grew consistently from its founding in 1846 until the 1960’s, when it maxed out at 741,324. Since then, the city has been losing residents at a low but consistent rate. It has been not bad as other Midwestern cities like Detroit, Cleveland, or St. Louis, but still noticeable. White flight appears to be slowing down as the White % has decreased only 1% since 2010. It also appears that there has been the start of some outward migration of African Americans, as there has been a 0.8% decrease since 2010. The Hispanic and Asian communities continue to grow at a steady pace.

The City of Milwaukee also has the lowest median income and the lowest percentage of college degree attainment in the state of any of my defined state regions. Unfortunately, both of these statistics correlate geographically based on race and ethnicity. Many of the precincts along the lakeshore are well over the state numbers in both statistics, while there are some neighborhoods in both the northern and southern parts of Milwaukee that are well under the city’s median/percentage.

PVI: D+29
Presidential Margin: Obama (08) +57%-> Obama (12) +60 -> Clinton +61%
2018 Margin: Baldwin +64% | Evers +60%

All one needs to do is look at the margins above and the precinct maps to know that really isn’t much more for the Democrats to do in the City of Milwaukee in terms of the margins. Evers did better than Clinton in the non-Hispanic southern part of the city and the western arms, while Walker got better margins in the minority communities than Trump did. In the end the two essentially washed each other out. The main thing that Biden needs to focus on here is turnout. Just looking at the map below you can see how Clinton lost 39,110 votes compared to Obama in 2012, predominantly in the African American precincts. Trump lost only about a third of the number of votes that Clinton lost. The goal for Biden should be to get over 200,000 votes in the City of Milwaukee. If there are wards you want to look at, I would suggest looking at the wards in those western arms of the city and by the airport in the southern part of the city, Wards 207-213, 265-280, and 311-317. If there are no Trump wards here, Biden is doing very well in the City of Milwaukee. If Trump is winning more than six wards here, he’s doing what he needs to do in Milwaukee.

No need for a county level breakdown as we are only dealing with the City of Milwaukee.

Milwaukee County

Wisconsin State Fair Park – West Allis, Wisconsin

Counties: Milwaukee County (Minus the City of Milwaukee)
2019 Population: 355,569 (6.11%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 6.62%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 222,021 (6.49% of the state totals)
Race and Ethnicity: 74.90% White, 11.97% Hispanic, 5.87% Asian, 4.78% Asian, 2+ 1.90%
Ancestry: 36.82% German, 15.78% Polish, 11.98% Irish, Italian 5.42%, 4.93% English
Median Income: $62,823
Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 47.4%

The debate here was whether or not to have just one region for the entirety of Milwaukee County, including the City of Milwaukee. With much thought I think there are clear enough differences when it comes to the racial, ethic, economic, and educational differences between the other communities in Milwaukee County and the namesake City. One could actually argue that this region could be divided up into four regions: Northeast, Southeast, South, and West. There are clear differences between these three areas, but I decided against that as that would result in regions that are too small and there are enough commonalties to keep them all together. However, I will be using those inter-county regions for further discussion.

First in the Northeast you have seven different cities and villages. With the exception of Brown Deer (57.5%) and a lesser extent Glendale (77.4%), this region is extremely white. Median income levels are also generally much higher here than the rest of the county. Again, other than Brown Deer, every community in this area has very high college degree percentages with Fox Point leading the way with 80.1%. This area is also less German than the region and the state, but higher percentages of people claiming Irish and English ancestry. Historically this was a very strong Republican white-collar area but has transitioned to the Democrats over the past two decades. While the WOW counties (Washington, Ozaukee, and Waukesha) get the hype, this is one of the true spots of a Democratic suburban surge in the state. Only River Hills and it’s $151,111 medium income still will vote for Republicans.

The second sub-region in the county is the Southeast. There you also have three cities on the coast of Lake Michigan (St. Francis, Cudahy, and South Milwaukee). These cities are very white, but with low post-secondary degree attainment. Manufacturing still makes up almost 20% of the industry here so this is your quintessential white working-class area. The area is also more Polish than the rest of the state and county. Historically this sub-region was strong for the Democrats and it still leans that way, even as the margins have tightened in the educational realignment in the era of Trump.

Then you have the third sub-region with the South. This includes the larger sized but less dense cities of Franklin and Oak Creek. Both of these communities incorporated as cities in the mid-1950’s in order to prevent being annexed by the City of Milwaukee. The law was actually changed in order to allow for reduced population density requirements for a “fourth class city” within any county containing a “first-class city,” meaning this was a law that only applied to Milwaukee County. At one point these cities were very much working-class Democratic communities, before they have transitioning to the Republicans throughout the 1990’s and into the 2000’s. In many ways they are more similar to the low-density suburbs around Racine, even though Oak Creek might be moving back a bit to the center. Lastly you have the Village of Hales Corners which would fit in with the Republican nature of Waukesha County and the Village of Greendale which is was founded as a “Greenbelt” community during the New Deal. This sub-region has an above average median income, slightly above average college degree attainment, is very white, and like the Southeast sub-region is very Polish.

Lastly you have the West sub-region that includes the three largest non-Milwaukee cities in the county: West Allis, Wauwatosa, and Greenfield. Plus, the much smaller Village of West Milwaukee. This region is about as white as the other three, but splits the difference between the more white-collar Northeast and blue-collar South/Southeast. Wauwatosa is the most white-collar of the four communities, with an above average medium income and college degree attainment, and it used to be a Republican stronghold. Scott Walker represented this city in the State Assembly from 1993 to 2002. This has changed in recent years as it’s moved radically to the left, similar to the Northeast sub-region. West Allis on the other hand is more blue-collar, with a lower than average median income and college degree attainment. It used to be stronger for the Democratic Party than it is now, but it still votes Democratic in most elections. Greenfield splits the difference between Wauwatosa and West Allis in terms of the white/blue-collar divide but leans to the right. West Milwaukee is very Democratic, essentially indistinguishable from the surrounding area in the City of Milwaukee with a growing Hispanic community.

PVI: D+2
Presidential Margin: Obama (08) +7%->Obama (12) +3%-> Clinton +11%
2018 Margin: Baldwin +18% | Evers +7%
Municipalities: City of West Allis (59,890) Clinton +3%, City of Wauwatosa (48,118) Clinton +24%, City of Greenfield (37,221) Trump +3%, City of Oak Creek (36,325) Trump +8%, City of Franklin (35,811) Trump +14%, City of South Milwaukee (20,696) Clinton +1%, City of Cudahy (18,104) Clinton +7%, Village of Greendale (14,143) Trump +4%, Village of Whitefish Bay (13,783) Clinton +36%, Village of Shorewood (13,145) Clinton +65%, City of Glendale (12,768) Clinton +39%, Village of Brown Deer (11,839) Clinton +37%, City of St. Francis (9,699) Clinton +14%

This is a region in the state where Biden would like to continue the Democratic trend and improve on Hillary Clinton’s margin of eleven points and be closer to Baldwins margin of eighteen points. Evers’ margin shows that Republicans can still keep the margin here in the single digits, but that might be more due to this being Scott Walker’s home region. Walker outran Trump in his hometown of Wauwatosa, flipped River Hills, and generally over-performed in the Northeast sub-region. That said Evers did much better than Mary Burke did here in 2014. Walker actually won this region by seven points in 2014 compared to Evers seven point win in 2018. A fourteen point swing! Yet, it’s also interesting to see how Evers did better than Clinton in the more working class Southeast sub-region and the City of West Allis.

If I had to pick one municipality to look at it would be the City of South Milwaukee. Clinton only won here by one point and Evers by only two points. If Biden could push that up to around five points, he would in all likelihood be getting a great margin out of this region. If Biden is winning any of Greendale, Greenfield, or Oak Creek is probably winning the state by a strong margin. Trump would like to try to win the blue-collar communities that he nearly won in 2016, including Cudahy, South Milwaukee, and West Allis. If he’s doing that, he’s probably on a path to win by a larger margin than 2016.

No need for a county level breakdown as we are only dealing with Milwaukee County.

Southeast Wisconsin

Administration Building and Research Tower, S.C. Johnson and Son – Racine, Wisconsin

Counties: Kenosha, Racine, and Walworth
2019 Population: 469,740 (8.07%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages 7.48%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 257,801 (7.54% of state totals)
Race and Ethnicity: 75.91% White, 13.03% Hispanic, 7.41% Black, 1.95% 2+, 1.34% Asian
Ancestry: 33.69% German, 11.60% Irish, 8.44% Polish, 6.64% Italian, 6.14% English
Median Income: $56,087
Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 34.8%

The Southeast Wisconsin region is influenced heavily by both the Chicago and Milwaukee Metropolitan areas, almost equally. Kenosha County is part of the Chicago Metro Area, while Racine and Walworth Counties are part of Combined Statistical Area for Milwaukee. Both Kenosha and Walworth have a lot of Chicagoland transplants. Many well-to-do people from Chicago area have vacation properties around Lake Geneva in Walworth County. In many of these places you find more Cubs and Bears fans than those that support the Brewers and Packers.

This region was also settled heavily by Yankees from New England and Upstate New York. Traditionally, this has resulted in this region being very Republican, especially outside of the core cities of Kenosha and Racine on Lake Michigan. In fact, Walworth County has only voted for the Democratic party once in its existence, back when the Republican Party was split in 1912. Median income here is a bit higher than the state, while those with a college degree is lower. The region is also about five points less white than the state and also about six points less German than the state. It is also the most Italian region in the state.

One could argue that Racine County would make more sense in the Milwaukee Suburbs region, but their shared settlement history plus the local rivalry between City of Racine and the City of Kenosha both culturally and with high school sports makes their inclusion here logical. Walworth has some similarities to both the Milwaukee Suburbs and Exurbs, but the Chicagoland influence is too strong to deny. Rock County would have been included in this region in the distant past as it too was settled by Northern Yankees, but it has seen its orbit shift from Southeast Wisconsin to the Madison area.

PVI: R+3
Presidential Margin: Obama (08) +9% -> Obama (12) +3% -> Trump +7%
2018 Margins: Baldwin +4% | Walker +6%

Looking at the recent results here in Southeast Wisconsin it becomes obvious that President Obama was very popular here. The Chicagoland influence in this region probably produced a Favorite Son Effect for Obama in 2008. Democrats do not have to win this region in order to win the state, but they have to perform better than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Even doing a point better could be enough as evident with Evers winning statewide with only a small gain here. Also, if the Democrat is winning this region, it means they are probably winning Racine County and winning statewide by around double digits. Republicans have to win this region to win the state.

Kenosha County

2019 Population: 169,561 (2.91% of Wisconsin)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 2.55%
July 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 89,530 (2.62% of state totals)
PVI: D+2
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +0%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Evers +4%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +14%
Municipalities: City of Kenosha (99,944) Clinton +18%, Village of Pleasant Prairie (21,034) Trump +11%, Village of Salem Lakes (14,852) Trump +32%

While the Southeast region of the state is not necessary for the Democrat to win, Kenosha County in all likelihood is. It is very rare that a Democrat can win statewide without winning here. In order to do so that margin in the City of Kenosha needs be well over 20 points for the Democrat and probably closer to around 22 points. A place to look at on election day is the Village of Somers north of the City of Kenosha. It leans a little bit to the right of the rest of the county, so if Biden is losing by less than say 3 points here, they are winning the county by a decent margin. As seen in the maps above, this was the only municipality in the region that Trump won that Evers flipped. Another place to look is the Village of Pleasant Prairie just south of the City of Kenosha on the Illinois border. If the Democrat is close here or winning it like Tammy Baldwin did, the rout is probably on. On the other side, if Trump is keeping Biden’s margin down in the City of Kenosha to the low double digits, he’s winning this region with a healthy margin.

Racine County

Danish Bakery Headquarters – Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin

2019 Population: 196,311 (3.37%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 3.21%
July 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 109,717 (3.21% of state totals)
PVI: R+2
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +5%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +5%
2018 Senate Margin: Baldwin +5%
Municipalities: City of Racine (76,760) Clinton +36%, Village of Mount Pleasant (27,082) Trump +4%, Village of Caledonia (25,277) Trump +17%, City of Burlington (10,980) Trump +18%

Racine County is the toss up county of this region, even if it does lean towards the Republicans. That said, it is a more competitive county during Presidential elections due to higher turnout among the African American and Latino communities in the City of Racine than during midterm elections. Make sure you keep your eye on the Village of Mount Pleasant just south of the City of Racine here. Unlike Kenosha County, Democrats typically have to win more than just the county namesake city in order to win the county and Mount Pleasant is their best bet. If Biden is winning the Village of Sturtevant he’s probably up by a decent margin in the county and probably statewide as well. Trump just needs to keep the margin down in the City of Racine to the low 30’s and pick up some massive 50-point wins in the western towns of Norway and Waterford.

Walworth County

2019 Population: 103,868 (1.78%)
Average Vote from Region Percentages: 1.71%
August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 58,554 (1.71% of state totals)
PVI: R+10
2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +21%
2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +22%
2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +10%
Municipalities: City of Whitewater (14,895 – Partially in Jefferson County) Clinton +15%, City of Elkhorn (10,019) Trump +17%

As previously mentioned, this is historically one of the most Republican counties in the state. Obama came close in 2008, but no one else has been able to replicate that performance since. Trump will win this county and the only question is by how much. Biden would like to keep the margin below 20 points and to do so he would probably want the margin in the City of Whitewater, a college town in the northwest corner of the county, to be closer to a 20 point win and maybe win one of the City of Delavan or the City of Lake Geneva. If he’s winning both he’s getting well over what he needs in this county. Trump would like to keep the entire county red other than the City of Whitewater and see his margins match Walker’s improved numbers in some of the towns and municipalities that border Illinois.

Welcome To Badger State Elections

I recently moved to Skokie, Illinois, a suburb just outside of Chicago. I had been living the Washington D.C. area for almost the past eight years both for graduate school and then work. One thing that has been great about moving back to the Midwest is that I am close to my family back in the Madison, Wisconsin area where I lived for the first twenty-four years of my life. While I was appreciative of the opportunities that living in and near our nation’s capital afforded me, I greatly missed being away from Wisconsin.

One way that I stayed connected to the Badger State was by keeping myself well informed with the politics and electoral goings in the state. I have followed every major election in the state with great interest and have tried to educate myself on the state’s history, geography, demographics, and culture. This desire to know more has only increased since moving closer.

As a result, I have decided it would be a good idea to start a blog where I can share my love of Wisconsin by discussing its elections and the other loosely related topics mentioned above. Topics will vary and at times seem random, but I’m hoping everything will at least be informative and interesting. As a disclaimer, I should note I am a very liberal Democrat, but I will do all in my power to keep my posts here as non-partisan as possible. If that becomes impossible, I will put an editorial disclaimer either in the post title or towards the top of the article.

For my first series on Badger State Elections, I have recently been writing a series of forum posts on Talk Elections doing a region-by-region and county-by-county breakdown of the upcoming Presidential election in Wisconsin. Wisconsin is one of the best bets, along with Arizona and Pennsylvania, for being the tipping point state in November. I figured that providing a breakdown and a guide of what to look for on election night/week(?) when looking at results from America’s Dairyland would be beneficial.

Each breakdown will first start with an overview of each region. Then I will go county by county proving past election data, percentages of the population, average voter turnout, most recent registered voter totals, other demographic data, and a discussion of municipalities that one should keep an eye on. This last bit will include looking at swing localities, places that if Biden is winning means the rout is on, and vice versa for Trump. At the county and regional level, I will be using data from the 2016, 2012, and 2008 Presidential elections, plus the 2018 Gubernatorial and Senate races. For the more detailed look at the towns, villages, and cities I will only be using the 2016 Presidential election plus the two 2018 races

Before starting the first breakdown I’m first going into introduce the seventeen regions of Wisconsin that I determined in order to best divide up the analysis. Please note that these regions are my own creation and are by no means perfect. Someone else could create a different looking map and it would be equally valid. When determining the regions, I took into account Census defined metropolitan areas, media market regions, ancestry, religion, high school sports conferences, and other cultural items. I will describe my thought process for how I determined each region at the beginning of each series entry.