- Counties: Adams, Green Lake, Marquette, Shawano, Waupaca, and Waushara
- 2019 Population: 171,039 (2.94%)
- Average Vote from Region Percentage: 2.85%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 97,378 (2.85% of the state totals)
- Race and Ethnicity: 90.41% White, 4.18% Hispanic, 2.40% American Indian, 1.30 2+, 1.14% Black
- Ancestry: 46.87% German, 9.58% Polish, 9.27% Irish, 6.89% Norwegian, 5.90% American
- Median Income: $48,587
- Post-Secondary Degree Attainment: 25.4%
I’m going to be 100% honest, in many ways this region is a hodgepodge of a bunch of different counties that really did not fit well in any of the other regions. The majority of the region is sort of in a no-man’s-land between the Central Wisconsin region centered on the Wisconsin River and the Fox Cities region on Lake Winnebago. Adams County could have possibly fit with Southwest Wisconsin, but I didn’t want that region to cross the Wisconsin River and there is nothing geologically in the county that could call for its inclusion into a Driftless Area region. Marquette County is in the Madison Media Market, but it is just too far away to justify its inclusion into the Madison exurbs region. Green Lake County shares a number of connections to Fond du Lac County, but there is no way one could justify any sort of connection between Milwaukee and Green County. Shawano County Is part of the Green Bay Combined Statistical Area, but when you start looking at demographic and socioeconomic factors, it makes sense to pair it with Waupaca County.
In terms of other counties that could have been added here, the only other one that could have made sense was Menominee County just north of Shawano County. This is home to the Menominee Indian Reservation and was formed in 1959 out of pieces of the surrounding counites. A large portion from Shawano County in particular. It could have made sense to pair this with the neighboring Stockbridge-Munsee Indian Reservation. I decided against this as if you again look at an aerial satellite footage, one can see that this county is predominately covered by dense forest. This makes it more appropriate to keep in the Eastern Northwoods. Finally, the City of New London straddles the line with Outagamie County, but it Outagamie County is the core of the Fox Cities region and would make little sense in this region.
So, what you really have in the East Central Wisconsin region is two subregions. The first subregion is Shawano and Waupaca counties. These are two very German counties rural counties, with a very high percentage of folks belonging to the evangelical Lutheran Church–Missouri Synod. The second subregion is to the south of this and includes Green Lake, Marquette, and Waushara counties and for the purposes of this breakdown, Adams County. This area is more rural than the northern subregion, but also more Catholic and less evangelical. Yet with those differences, when you look under the hood you can see that this region actually works pretty well put together.
For one, every county in this region is extremely rural. Waupaca County is the most populated county in the region and it only has about 51,000 people. The largest municipality, the City of Shawano, as of 2019 only has 8,935 people. Two, when looking ancestry figures in the region, this is the first one where American appears in the top five at 5.90%. This is also again a very white region, nine and half points higher than the state. Also, the median income is $6,023 less than the state median. Finally, the post-secondary degree attainment in the region is 13.3% less than the state percentage. This is the lowest region in the state These factors put together spell out a region that is right in the wheelhouse for Trump and the modern Republican Party.
- PVI: R+12
- Presidential Margins: Obama (08) +3% -> Romney 8% -> Trump 32%
- 2018 Margins: Walker +26% | Vukmir +14%
Currently this region is only the second most Republican region in the state based on PVI. However, after the upcoming 2020 election I expect this region to pass the Milwaukee Suburbs to become the most Republican region. This region continues to get redder, while the Milwaukee Suburbs slowly move to the left. It’s amazing to think that only twelve years ago President Obama won five out of the six counties in this region, only losing Green County. Since than this region has rocketed to the right. This region saw the best improvement for Republicans from 2012 to 2016 as Trump improved on Romney’s margin here by twenty-four points. Looking at the previously discussed demographic and socioeconomic statistics of this region, it makes sense Trump would do very well here.
What is interesting is that both Baldwin and even to a lesser extent Evers were able to make some solid improvements on Clinton’s performance in this region. As seen in the swing map above, Evers outperformed Clinton pretty strongly almost everywhere. The only expectations were some of the towns and municipalities close to Evers’ problem county of Marathon. Biden would be thrilled if he could take down Trump a notch or two and get Evers’ margin here in November. That’s all he’d really need as I would expect Biden to improve on Clinton’s margins in other areas of the state. Trump would love for this to be a region of the state where he could expand on his 2016 margins and really push his margin up into the high thirties.
- 2019 Population: 20,220 (0.35%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 0.35%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 11,878 (0.35% of state totals)
- PVI: R+5
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +23%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +14%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +3%
- Municipalities: City of Adams (1,893) Trump +7%
Of all the counties in this region, Adams County is the only one that has the potential to be competitive. Prior to 2016 this county was essentially a bellwether, but in recent years it swung hard to the Republicans. On election day, I would focus on the Town of Dell Prairie. This town actually flipped to both Evers and Baldwin in 2018 after the Republican won it in the prior election. It was also one of only a few places where Evers outperformed Baldwin. If Biden is winning here it means he’s probably getting a positive result here in Adams County. Trump would love to complete the sweep again and push the margin up to the high twenties. Biden would be on track to a large statewide win if he’s winning the City of Adams and the Village of Friendship or even besting Baldwin and winning the county.
- 2019 Population: 18,913 (0.32%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 0.31%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 10,730 (0.31% of state totals)
- PVI: R+17
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +40%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +35%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +21%
- Municipalities: City of Berlin (5,385 – Partially in Waushara County) Trump + 27%
Green Lake County is the most Republican County in this very Republican region. Obama lost this county by around fifteen points in 2008 even as he was winning every other county in this region. I don’t expect Biden to get much out of this county, but his goal would probably be to match Evers losing margin of thirty-five points. It’s difficult to pick a specific place to look at on election day as every Republican since 2016 has swept this county, but if forced to pick I would say look at the City of Berlin in the northeast part of the county. If Biden is only losing here by around fifteen points, he’s losing by an acceptable margin. Trump would love to continue to expand on the Republican dominance here and get that margin into the upper forties. If Biden is winning any town of municipality in this county, he’s on pace to win the state in a landslide margin.
- 2019 Population: 15,574 (0.27%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 0.27%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 8,987 (0.26% of state totals)
- PVI: R+8
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +25%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +17%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +8%
- Municipalities: City of Montello (1,466) Trump +9
Like Adams County, this was a county that at one time a Democrat could win if they were winning statewide. Looking at the margins now it’s shocking to think that Obama won this in both of his elections. Biden’s objective here would be to get the margin down to about what Evers got here in 2018. To do so I’d look at the City of Montello. It almost exactly matched the statewide margin for the 2018 Gubernatorial race. From Trump’s point of view, he’d love to push this margin out to around thirty points. If Biden is winning any other local in this county like the Town of Buffalo, Village of Endeavor, or the Village of Oxford, he’s well on his way to a Baldwin size win statewide.
Shawano County is historically a very Republican County, but there are a few Democratic hotspots here. In particular, in the north central part of the county, in the towns of Bartelme and Red Springs, is the Stockbridge-Munsee Indian Reservation. Biden’s objective here should be to try to get that margin down to around thirty points. On election day I would look to the Village of Gresham just south of the Stockbridge-Munsee Indian Reservation. If Biden is winning here, he’s probably getting the margin he needs here. Trump would love to push the margin here to forty points and maybe pick off the Village of Eland in the western part of the County. Biden would be on his way to a big statewide win if he’s winning the City of Shawano like Baldwin did.
- 2019 Population: 50,990 (0.88%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 0.86%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 29,274 (0.86% of state totals)
- PVI: R+12
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +31%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +26%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +15%
- Municipalities: City of Waupaca (5,969) Trump +7%
Like most of the counties in this region, Waupaca County is a very Republican County and it is historically so. Obama was the first Democrat to win here since FDR in 1936. The place to look at here on election day would be the City of Waupaca. Both Clinton and Evers got very close to winning the city and Biden winning it would mean he’s probably only losing here in the low twenties, which would be solid for a Democrat in this county. Trump would like to repeat his sweep in Waupaca County and push that margin out into the upper thirties. Biden would be on pace to win big win statewide if he’s winning anything else here like the portion of the City of New London that is in this county.
- 2019 Population: 24,443 (0.42%)
- Average Vote from County Percentage: 0.40%
- August 1, 2020 Voter Registration Totals: 13,581 (0.40% of state totals)
- PVI: R+13
- 2016 Presidential Margin: Trump +34%
- 2018 Gubernatorial Margin: Walker +28%
- 2018 Senate Margin: Vukmir +16%
- Municipalities: City of Wautoma (2,142) Trump +20%
Like Waupaca County, Waushara County is also historically a very Republican County. Obama in 2008 and Clinton in 1996 where the only Democrats to win here since FDR did in his first election in 1932.The place I would keep my eye on when the returns come in is the Village of Wild Rose in the central part of the county. Evers nearly won Wild Rose in 2018. If Biden can win it like Baldwin did, he’s probably only losing by a respectable amount here in the low twenties. Trump again wants to get the sweep here and would love it if he could push his margin up into the high thirties. If Biden is winning anywhere else in this county, like the Village of Hancock, he’d be on pace to have a pretty big win statewide.
Badger State Elections 